Not only was the Iraqi act excoriated, but the very nature of Saddam Hussein's regime-long a close Soviet ally by virtue of a 1972 Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation-was characterized in remarkably harsh language. Shevardnadze had quickly established basic Soviet policy before any other elements of the government had the opportunity to reconsider or react.

U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency sources reportedly leaked the belief that the Soviet military must have known of an event of such magnitude, and pointed to the mysterious visit to Iraq of a Soviet military hard-liner, Colonel-General Albert Makashov, two weeks before the invasion.11 It is entirely possible that some elements of the Soviet military knew of standing Iraqi operational plans for an invasion of Kuwait, but the existence of such plans does not mean they will be executed.
On the contrary, they represented a broad range of opinion and reflected diverse concerns and agendas.

The speed of the joint reaction placed an early gloss of strong theoretical and operational cooperation on the two countries' policies. "A lot of people sitting in Moscow would say ... this was the first time that the United States started to act as a global policeman, that there was no counterweight to the great might of the United States," says Dmitri Trenin, an analyst with the Moscow Carnegie Centre. Please enable JavaScript for this site to function properly. Much of the world, fairly or not, perceived the conflict as a proxy war between superpower weapons systems. The military had the most definable interests at stake. (This was indeed one of the grievances of the conservatives.) The Gulf War challenged all these interests.The forces opposed to U.S. policies were hardly united or cohesive. Crude prices suffered their biggest daily rout since the 1991 Gulf War on Monday as top producers Saudi Arabia and Russia began a price war that threatens to overwhelm global oil markets with supply.

A joint statement the very next day sharply condemned Iraq and called for an immediate cutoff of military equipment to Baghdad. They added, however, that the advisers were not involved in planning the invasion of Kuwait.4 Soviet spokesmen later stated the advisers would be coming home as soon as their contracts were fulfilled.A distinct Ministry of Defense agenda was revealed in the conflict.

Similarly, such reports filtering up to political levels of the Soviet military establishment may have been given limited credibility-reckoning Saddam would be foolish to do such a thing.

This belief tended to overlook the inevitable complications for Moscow of operational cooperation with a vigorous, tough, proactive U.S. policy.

Gorbachev's own first major public statement on the invasion highlighted the international legal aspects of the crisis, describing the Iraqi invasion as "an act of perfidy and a blatant violation of international law and the U.N. A Western diplomatic source in Moscow suggested in August 1990 that the United States and the Soviet Union were "exchanging impressions" about the situation in Iraq; a Soviet Defense Ministry spokesman, however, denied any sharing of information about the Iraqi military.7 The Sunday Times reported on August 19 that the U.S.S.R. had been providing a steady flow of intelligence to the United States on Iraqi weaponry, its characteristics and locations.8 Clearly such reports were embarrassing to the Soviet military and threatened its long-term credibility as an ally to Middle Eastern states. ... its second-biggest drop since the Gulf War in 1991. In the end Moscow did indeed sustain its general commitment to all U.N. resolutions on Iraq, but only with a process that proved deeply unsettling within the Soviet Union.

Although Russia did not commit troops, it joined the United States in condemning Iraq, its long-time client state.
Would a permanent U.S. military presence remain? Graham E. Fuller is a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation and former Vice Chairman of the National Intelligence Council at the Central Intelligence Agency. Washington itself did not shrink from embarrassing the Soviet military and driving a wedge between Moscow and Baghdad, announcing in January that "valuable intelligence information" from the Soviet Union possibly helped limit allied casualties in the air war.9The Soviet Union maintained the same ambivalence about joining the U.S.-led coalition against Iraq.


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