It’s an overly simplistic reduction, but a useful model to imagine that the defense has limited resources to devote to either covering routes beyond the sticks, or short of the sticks. In this case, every yard you get on 3rd down is a yard you are making the opposing team travel.

The average time until a sack in the NFL is over 4 seconds, which is significantly longer than the average time until pass.

Looking at PFR from 2012-2018 about 0.4% of drop-backs resulted in strip sack turnovers. The idea of having someone who half DB and half LB and another that is half LB and half DL is brilliant in my opinion and gives you the flexibilty to adjust to everything that offenses throw at you these days without getting caught running people in and out of the game.2) I think, if anything, these numbers help back up the idea that it's talent and not scheme causing the big plays. 14 35 0 3. So on a 2nd and 5, a 2.5 yard pick up would leave you with 3rd and 2 or 3. Not a jailhouse, 7 guy rush; but at least 4-5 guys rushing the QB on every 3rd and 3 or more. Meanwhile, one second down, they average 2nd and 8.41 and give up an average of 5.629.

There is a lot of scheme gambling going on to try to stop opponents, since M generally isn't winning the one-on-one battles for those 6.It's going to be an interesting season the rest of the way. Despite all of this, teams are still reluctant to air it out on third-and-long.

We need to look at what did happen to inform us on what could happen or we are relying on judgement and intuition to design a strategy.I'd be curious to see some evidence for that.

I'll let you guys draw your own conclusions and leave them in the comments. The deeper the throw, the longer the QB needs to hold the ball for the play to develop and the offensive line needs to be able to protect the QB.

Ball position always matters, both on offense and on defense, and sometimes it may be just as important to move the ball as to try for a 1st down. (See Foles, Nick).I'm not exactly sure how to control for that, although one guess would be to compare that situation to "forced" situations (trailing near the end of the game) where "punt" isn't a realistic option. The likelihood of a third-down conversion only moves from about 10% to a little over 25% on throws between zero and 90% of the yards to gain, but it doubles if the throw is at or just beyond the sticks.More importantly, the likelihood of a turnover remains largely constant with increased throw depth. So your positive goals don’t include improving your punting position, just getting in field goal range or getting a first down. "Your own comment shows that a turnover is 3x more likely! It's a good way to move the yardage stats without moving the win probability ( in the correct direction).My feeling is that, if a team calls a draw play on 3rd and very long, and they get 15 yards or more, then that's a good result, even if they haven't gotten a 1st down. The inability to get opponents off of the field haunted the Wildcats in many of their losses in 2018.All of that changed in Chris Klieman’s first season as defensive coordinator “It’s always, ‘You guys will earn the right to blitz,’ when it comes to pressure,” former K-State safety “I think our third-down defense was so good last year because we got people into bad situations. To start breaking it down, throw depth was taken as a percentage of yards to gain.

If the defense sends 8 rushers, and leaves the 3 DBs deep, the slant is probably the only guy who'll come open before the QB gets drilled into the turf. The stats belowThe Yahoo drive log shows that "Brandon Moore" intercepted Stanzi...um, okay, Yahoo.Edit: I think I figured out that first MSU 3-and-6.

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