The new prime-minister Mikhail Mishoustin indicated that  new social support measures anounced by the president and worth 0.3-0.5% of GDP per year will not require an ncrease in the overall spending plan (i.e. Meanwhile, the discussion on the fiscal rule remains the key uncertainty for the FX and bond markets' outlook right now.Stay up to date with all of ING’s latest economic and financial analysis....we are obliged to ask your permission before placing any cookies on your computer.

The PM has recently indicated that it is a possibility.In either of these two events, the unchanged budget rule would dictate an increased net borrowing, which is already planned at a high level of RUB1.7 tr for this year. Details on spending plans will be key for determining household and corporate activity expectations as well as their inflationary consequences.The second big question (and to market participants, it's probably the first) is whether some easing in the fiscal rule will be required in order to accommodate the shift in economic policy priorities. The increase in the threshold oil price by US$1/bbl lowers the annual borrowing need by RUB110-120 bn per annum and reduces the amount of annual FX purchases by US$1.7-1.9 bn. Government Budget Value in Russia averaged 412.07 RUB Billion from 1998 until 2020, reaching an all time high of 3834.60 RUB Billion in October of 2008 and a record low of -2967.30 RUB Billion in December of 2016. As a result, there is a chance that the previous spending plan for 2020, which assumed a 0.6 pp of GDP increase to 17.3% of GDP,  will remain intact. or 1.5−2 % higher than inflation. A vendor counts Russian rouble banknotes at a market in Moscow, March 3, 2014. The levels of consolidated budget spending estimates for 2019−2021 have been raised slightly after spending increased faster than forecast in 2018. increase in the base oil price by $10/bbl or more) might cause the investment community to question the sustainability of Russia's previous commitment to macro stability.The full list of the new Russian Cabinet members is expected to be announced this week, after which some details on the budget policy my follow. As the new prime minister has been credited with improving the efficiency of the state administration, not least in taxation services of which he was in charge, it would be reasonable to assume that some unwinding of this backlog will take place in 2020, with possible redistribution towards more targeted spending on both social support and infrastructure spending. It is the first time since 2014 that Russia’s budget has been planned with a surplus. Trading Economics members can view, download and compare data from nearly 200 countries, including more than 20 million economic indicators, exchange rates, government bond yields, stock indexes and commodity prices. (XINHUA/REUTERS) MOSCOW, July 10 (Xinhua) -- Russia 's federal budget in January-June was executed with a surplus of 1.561 trillion rubles (24.6 billion U.S. dollars), or 3.1 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP), the Russian Finance Ministry said Wednesday in a report of preliminary estimates. This website uses cookies to make your browsing experience more efficient and enjoyable.This website uses cookies to make your browsing experience more efficient and enjoyable. Therefore, over the coming weeks,  investors should expect some indication from the government as to what will be the scale of extra spending.For now it appears that budget stability remains a priorityFor now it appears that budget stability remains a priority. In practice, easing means an increase in the 'base' oil price - determining which portion of the (base) fuel revenues s allowed to finance current expenditure and which part is treated as extra and needs to be transferred into the National Wealth Fund beyond the currently designated 2% per year (see Figure 3). With the budget breakeven oil price below $50/bbl there is some space to increase spending. Therefore, it would be reasonable to expect that in order to address either of the two challenges (extra spending and fuel revenue under-collection) the budget-rule oil price could be increased by around US$5/bbl. Russia’s draft budget for 2019–2021 was accepted on 21 November by the State Duma and, on 23 November, by the Federation Council. The pace of spending growth remains very much the same as in last autumn’s forecast at around 6 % p.a. In the meantime, the total amount of unspent allocations is RUB1.1 tr, or 1.0% of 2019 GDP.The structure of this backlog is broad-based, as it appears that over the last few years only spending on social support and mass media has reached nearly 100% fulfilment. The preliminary federal budget surplus of 2.7% GDP in 2018 is driven by solid non-oil revenues and restrained spending, and the Finance Ministry remains conservative for 2019-21. Russia recorded a government budget deficit of 955.88 RUB Billion in June of 2020. While the surplus shrank compared to 2.6% GDP seen in 2018, it is not a sign of deterioration in Russia's fiscal position:Overall, the 2019 budget report highlights the decline in macro risks, which has been the Russian government's key priority over the last five years.


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